It sounds like an oxymoron: “US recession over, unemployment seen at 10 pct” was the title of a Reuters article today. I know that a recession is technically defined by two consecutive quarters of real GDP decline, but it just doesn’t seem like a recession should be “over” until most Americans feel like it is over. The article reported the findings of a recent survey from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) that polled 44 professional forecasters, with 80 percent of them saying they believed that the economy had grown in the third quarter, effectively “ending” the recession.

“The great recession is over,” NABE President-Elect Lynn Reaser said. “The vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has ended, but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines.”

Yet most of those same analysts believe that “ordinary Americans will probably not see much difference as unemployment will remain high well into 2010.”

Here’s what they think will happen with the housing market: the downturn is almost over and two-thirds of the survey respondents believe that home prices will bottom out this year. They expect the Fed to leave its target interest rate alone until late spring 2010, with the rate only rising to 1 percent by the end of next year.

Well, at least that should help keep mortgage rates low. Or at least give them the potential to remain low.

I don’t know how effective these professional forecasters are at foretelling the future (I guess they are good enough to make a living at it), but good news and increased confidence tend to have a positive impact on the markets regardless of whether or not they are based on reality. So here’s to faking it until we make it!

Rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages dropped below 5 percent last week and continued to fall this week, creating a dramatic stir in refinancing.

According to mortgage finance company Freddie Mac, the average rate on a 30-year FRM sank to 4.87 percent, excluding points, during the week ending Thursday, down from 4.94 percent. The 15-year FRM rate also dropped, falling to 4.33 percent from 4.36 percent, and the one-year adjustable rate mortgage averaged 4.53 percent, up from 4.49 percent.

There seems to be something special about long-term rates under 5 percent, as refinance activity has surged up 38 percent during the three weeks ending October 2 when rates were below that threshold. The same thing happened in May when rates were under 5 percent for several weeks. Some estimate that refinance requests rose by as much as 30 percent at that time.

It must be something about hearing that rates are near “record lows” that stirs homeowners to take the initiative to refinance into better loan terms and lower monthly payments.

“The wave of homeowners taking advantage of low rates by refinancing is a smart move on the individual level, and it’s possible these refinances could help the housing market in the long term,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow.com, based in Seattle, Washington as quoted in a Reuters article. “If homeowners are getting out of risky mortgage products and into more traditional products, that could help stem future foreclosures marginally.”

The rates are still only helpful for those who qualify for refinances, and approximately one in four homeowners today are underwater in their mortgages, often keeping them from taking advantage of the falling rates.

Home purchases do not seem to be as affected by the drop in rates, as they only rose 13.2 percent in the latest week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Many of the same U.S. mortgage lenders that contributed to the real estate boom by lending money to buyers without verifying their ability to make the payments now seem to be targeting seniors with reverse mortgages. Brokers are often given a financial incentive whenever they sell a reverse mortgage, which contributes to misleading claims to encourage more customers to sign their name to this type of mortgage – according to a report released by ConsumerLaw.org called “Subprime Revisited.”

“This market is designed to serve seniors, so when we find abuses cropping up and migrating from the subprime market to the senior market, that sounds an especially loud warning bell,” said Rick Jurgens, an advocate at the NCLC, who contributed to the report.

A reverse mortgage is for people who are at least 62 years old who need extra cash. They make it possible for seniors to take out the equity in their homes with either a lump-sum payment, a line of credit tied to the home, or through checks. Lenders offer reverse mortgages because they know they’ll get that money back when the homes sell when the borrowers move or pass away.
The problem with reverse mortgages is when lenders falsely describe them to potential senior borrowers as “lifetime income.” Even though cross-selling of other financial products and annuities with reverse mortgages was banned in 2008, some lenders are still participating in the cross-selling of expensive products that lead the customer to believe are necessary. According to the Housing and Urban Development department’s website, in 2008, reverse mortgages were given to more than 100,000 seniors to the tune of more than $17 billion borrowed from home equities.

Reverse mortgages may at times be a good financial choice, but critics of the lending practice recommend enhanced borrower counseling before awarding these loans, along with the creation of higher standards for lenders and brokers offering such loan programs.

When seniors use reverse mortgages to tap into the equity of their home and the values of those homes drop (as has been the case in the past few years), they end up receiving less money than expected.

John Dugan, head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said at an American Bankers Association conference in June,

“Risks that contributed to the collapse of the subprime mortgage market also are a concern in the sale of reverse mortgages. While reverse mortgages can provide real benefit, they also have some of the same characteristics as the riskiest types of subprime mortgages - and that should set off alarm bells.”

As the government strives to improve the current mortgage crisis, it seems there is another one looming in the near future!

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is saying that the U.S. unemployment rate is going to break the 10 percent mark before long and hover there for awhile before the trend reverses.

Speaking with George Stephanopoulos Sunday on ABC’s “This Week,” Greenspan said

“…At some point, we’re going to start to see an improvement in employment, but remember that unless there is a monthly increase of more than 100,000 a month, you’ve still got the unemployment rate continuing to rise.”

“My own suspicion is that we’re going to penetrate the 10 percent barrier and stay there for a while before we start down,” he said.

His predictions are not all that shocking considering the Labor Department announced on Friday that the current unemployment rate has reached 9.8 percent.

Yet even as jobs continue to be slashed, the housing market seems to be doing just fine. Of course, the government tax credit for first-time home buyers might have a thing or two to do with that.

The National Association of Realtors announced last week that its pending home sales index rose 6.4 percent in August for the seventh straight month. Pending home sales are a loose predictor of actual home sales as they track signed contracts. And while actual sales have been on the rise, they have not matched the pending home sales pace as a certain percentage of buyers back out and as plenty of short sales are rejected by banks before closing.

And the tax credit set to expire December 1 has been a big contributor to the upswing in real sales over the past few months. One survey found that 43 percent of buyers in August were first-timers.

“No doubt many first-time buyers are rushing to beat the deadline for the $8,000 tax credit, which expires at the end of next month,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. “Sales will decline when the tax credit expires because we are not yet on a self-sustaining recovery path. It also raises a risk of a double-dip recession. Extending and expanding the tax credit is the best tool in our arsenal to encourage financially qualified buyers to stimulate the economy and help reduce the budget deficit.”

If the tax credit is extended, things could continue to look strong in the housing market as long-term mortgage interest rates fell below 5 percent again last week. I guess the question is whether the housing market can find a sustainable level of growth before unemployment figures level off.

For the first time since May, interest rates on long-term mortgage loans dropped below 5 percent this week, reaching near-record lows, according to mortgage financier Freddie Mac. The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) plunged to 4.94 percent, excluding points, for the week ending Thursday, from 5.04 percent last week. Rates have not been that low since the week ended May 28 when it was 4.91 percent. Last year at this time, the average rate was much higher at 6.10 percent.

Other rates also fell significantly with the average on a 15-year FRM dropping to 4.36 percent from 4.46 percent, and the average on a one-year adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) dipping to 4.49 percent from 4.52 percent.

Freddie Mac says this is great for the housing market.

“Low mortgage rates are helping to stabilize home sales,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “New home sales in August rose to the highest annualized pace since September 2008 and the inventory of unsold houses fell to the lowest level since February 1983. Although existing home sales fell somewhat in August, it was still the second strongest showing in 23 months.”

Apparently the low rates from the past week were not enough to entice borrowers to the mortgage table, though. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday that refinance applications were down by 0.8 percent for the week and home purchase applications were down 6.2 percent.

Even though rates are phenomenally low, the problem may continue to be that many potential borrowers just don’t have the credit to qualify these days. Those who really need to refinance are often behind in their payments or even underwater in their loans and are unable to take advantage of the rates. Others, like many potential first-time home buyers, may not have the down payment money or credit scores to get into a low rate home loan right now. Still, rock bottom rates are probably the best thing for the market until unemployment and foreclosure numbers start to stabilize.

With all of the foreclosures and bad financial news one would think that there is nothing going on in the refinancing market segment right now. But, that is far from the truth. There are still some great reasons to refinance your mortgage. Doing so will deliver five advantages to you.

1. Low Rates
Rates are still at their lowest in a very long time. And, it appears that since the economy might be on an ‘upswing,’ the rates could increase very soon. Rates currently hover around 5% which makes finance charges a small part of a mortgage payment. There is another benefit of this: being able to afford a 15-year mortgage. This will allow you to pay off your loan sooner and build up equity quicker at the same time.

2. Replacing an ARM
Getting out of that adjustable rate mortgage is mandatory because of the increases in payments that they will bring or have brought in the last year or so. With budgets stretched thin, families can ill afford to have this happen right now. Those who were comfortable with their payments suddenly wake up to find that they have increased in such a manner as to prevent them from being able to make them.

3. Financing is More Plentiful Than You Might Think
There are still banks failing and being bailed out by the FDIC, but there are still many solvent and cash-heavy financial institutions like credit unions that would like a bigger piece of the action on mortgages. Not just any mortgages, though. They want good solid financing deals that are good for both the homeowner as well as themselves.

4. Affordable Payments
Using our refinancing calculator, you can see just how affordable your payments can be. When you compare the numbers from this calculator to your current figures, you will be able to see yourself with lower affordable payments which will provide breathing room in your budget.

5. Individual Attention and Advice
Since there are fewer buyers and homeowners financing houses right now, mortgage companies are not as busy and can afford to spend more time with customers and provide greater service that is needed to make sure that each customer gets the financing that they need. During the rush to finance sub-prime mortgages, it was difficult to get the attention that you needed to make sure that the details were being handled properly.

Not all news is bad right now: refinancing makes a lot of sense for many people.

The Federal Reserve governor made statements Friday that left the markets wondering if the Fed will drastically tighten interest rates when the time comes, instead of gradually increasing them.

Even though Fed Governor Kevin Warsh voted Wednesday along with the unanimous Federal Open Market Committee decision to keep the fed funds rate at “exceptionally low levels …for an extended period”, his comments in a speech yesterday to an international bankers convention in Chicago show he can conceive of the need for quick action in the future.

“The Federal Reserve acted preemptively in providing monetary stimulus, especially in early 2008 when the economy appeared on an uneven, uncertain trajectory. If the economy were to turn up smartly and durably, policy might need to be unwound with the resolve equal to that in the accommodation phase. That is, the speed and force of the action ahead may bear some corresponding symmetry to the path that preceded it.”

He added in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece Friday that, “prudent risk management indicates that policy likely will need to begin normalization before it is obvious that it is necessary, possibly with greater force than is customary.’

His Chicago speech echoed such thoughts that the Fed might need to start fighting inflation with rate hikes even before the economy fully recovers.

“If policymakers insist on waiting until the level of real activity [GDP] has plainly and substantially returned to normal-and the economy has returned to self-sustaining trend growth-they will almost certainly have waited too long.”

I doubt that Warsh was speaking on behalf of all the Fed board members in his remarks and writing, but if any of his colleagues share his opinions, we may see mortgage interest rates jumping up much sooner and more significantly than many economists have been predicting.

The Obama administration and the homebuyer’s tax credit went a long way to stabilizing the housing market, with the Standard and Poor’s Supercomposite Homebuilding Index increasing 30% in 2009. The Federal officials can buy up to $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities with continued support for the housing markets. At this time, they have bought about $860 billion in the mortgage-backed securities program, and $129 billion (out of $200 billion program) in U.S agency bonds.

As the economy improves though, The Federal Reserve will begin to slow down its purchase of mortgage securities. The Federal Open Market Committee said after meeting in Washington:

“The Committee will gradually slow the pace of these purchases in order to promote a smooth transition in markets and anticipates that they will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010.”

For the first time since August of 2008, policy makers announced that the economy is in fact improving, but that they are committed to keep the interest rates low for an extended period – perhaps into the spring season.

The market is still tough, but there are signs of definite improvement. According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales rose 7.2% in July from June, which is the highest level increase in about two years. The Federal Housing Finance Agency index indicates that home prices rose for the third month in a row, with a 0.3% increase in July from June.

Instead of shocking the market by shutting down all government assistance programs at once, the Fed will ease out their purchases and are hoping that other buyers will start increasing their activity to avoid a potential increase in mortgage rates. When the Fed’s stop purchasing mortgage-backed securities, it’s possible that mortgage rates will see a 0.5 to 1% increase.

It seems there can be no complete recovery of the housing market until the job market stabilizes. New data from Equifax, reported by Reuters news today, showed that the rate of mortgage delinquencies is climbing, and climbing fast.

According to the source, 7.58 percent of all U.S. mortgages were delinquent by 30 days or more in August, an increase from July’s 7.32 percent. This is the fourth straight month of rising delinquencies, and the current rate is up dramatically from a year earlier when it was 4.89 percent. Two years ago, in August 2007, the rate was only 3.44 percent.

Here’s a graph from the Mortgages Unzipped blog that shows the delinquency trend over the past few years. It is definitely on the quick rise.

Apparently there is a very high correlation between these recent figures and the rate of consumer bankruptcy filings. Bankruptcy filings rose by 32 percent in the past year according to Reuters.

Rising unemployment numbers are certainly to blame for both of these issues. And we haven’t seen the end of job losses so far. While unemployment rates have not been increasing as fast in the latest months, more jobs are still being cut than are being created. And as people continue to lose jobs, they will continue to be unable to meet their financial obligations.

What does this mean for the rest of the mortgage market? Home prices are likely to stay down across many regional markets until the delinquency rates (and consequently the foreclosure rates) calm down. But the good news is that mortgage interest rates remain near historic lows, so buying and refinancing are still very attractive for those who can qualify.

According to top state officials another wave of foreclosures is about to break across the country, this time in the form of resetting option ARM loans.

“Payment option ARMs are about to explode,” said Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller after the meeting. “That’s the next round of potential foreclosures in our country,” he said.

State Attorney Generals in a meeting Thursday with President Obama’s administration warned that a new round of foreclosures could destabilize the timidly recovering housing market.

Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard offered raw figures on the plight of his state, saying that there are 128,000 option ARMS poised to reset through 2010, with many of them already starting to reset this month. “It’s the other shoe,” he told Reuters. “I can’t say it’s waiting to drop. It’s dropping now.” He also said that they “threaten a much greater hit to the consumer than the subprimes,” the original shock wave of foreclosures.

What are option ARMs? They are mortgage loans that provide borrowers with extremely low initial teaser rates and give borrowers the option to pay even less than the monthly interest on their loans for a certain period of time. This actually causes the loan balance to increase, creating negative equity or “underwater” loans. Once the interest rates reset, the new payments can be as much as 10 times higher than the initial payment, leaving many people unprepared for the huge jump and often resulting in default and foreclosure.

Here’s a graph from the consumerist.com, courtesy of Credit Suisse, that shows when and how big the option ARM hit will be. It looks like tens of billions of dollars worth of these loans will be resetting over the next two years. And odds are, many of these borrowers will not be able to afford the new, higher payments. Surfs up everybody!