Zillow.com reported today that the number of underwater mortgages in the country is shrinking. According to its quarterly survey, 21 percent of all single-family homeowners during the third quarter of 2009 were underwater, or owed more than their homes were worth, a decrease from 23 percent during the second quarter.

Good news, right? Yes, because it means fewer foreclosures as a result of underwater loans.

“The decline in the percentage of homeowners with negative equity is a positive sign and is directly attributable to the stabilization of home values from the second quarter to the third,” said Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries, as quoted in a CNN article.

Yet the less obvious side of the story is that the number of underwater loans is decreasing simply because so many homeowners are losing their homes to foreclosure, removing themselves from the mortgage scene altogether.

The number of underwater loans may be due to rise again in the near future as well, as a combination of factors is converging to create another wave of foreclosures.  There are tens of thousands of risky option ARMs and interest-only loans perched to reset during the next year and experts are predicting many of those borrowers will not be able to keep up with their new, dramatically higher payments.

Plus the national unemployment rate just topped 10 percent, which could add to the foreclosure frenzy as borrowers who have recently lost jobs have no income to pay their mortgages.

All this makes it seem like we may still be several months or more away from true housing market stabilization. That’s good news for first-time buyers, but not so pleasant tidings for current homeowners, especially those looking to sell.

The U.S. House of Representatives voted Thursday to extend the first-time homebuyer tax credit through 2010 as well as offer a credit to more seasoned homebuyers. The vote was 403-to-12 and was widely expected to pass.

The current tax credit has been in effect since January as a piece of President Obama’s economic stimulus plan and has allowed first-time homebuyers an $8,000 tax credit. It has been credited with jump starting the fallen national housing market, resulting in increases in existing homes over the past several months. Many feared that if it were allowed to expire as it was set to on December 1, that the real estate market would see a dramatic drop again.

Here’s how the extension works:

Buyers must be entered into a mortgage contract for a home purchase by midnight on April 30, 2010 and must close on their sale by midnight of June 30, 2010. First-time homebuyers will still receive $8,000 in tax credits, while previous homeowners (specifically those who have owned their current homes for at least five years) will be allowed $6,500 in credits.

The purchased homes must be principal residences and may not exceed $800,000 in price. Those with an income of $145,000 or more ($245,000 if married filing jointly) are not eligible for the credit and those with incomes between $125,000 and $145,00 would receive a reduced credit.

Many hope that this extension will get things moving in not only the lower-priced end of housing but in the middle-priced range as well. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors believes that it might stem potential buyers’ fears about falling home prices.

“Once the consumer fear factor disappears, then housing can move into a sustainable recovery,’’ Yun said. “I think we will be there by the middle of next year.’’

I like how Patti Ketcham put it, a Tallahassee real estate firm owner, as quoted in the Boston Globe. “It’s huge. I think it’s going to have a big impact. I hope I’m right. Golly, I hope I’m right.”

Mortgage interest rates moved a little higher during the past week, but overall this has been a great year for rates according to mortgage finance giant Freddie Mac on Thursday.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage inched up to 5.03 percent, excluding points, from 5.00 percent the week before. One year ago, however, the average rate was more than a point and a half higher at 6.46 percent.

The average rate on a 15-year FRM grew to 4.46 percent, up from 4.43 percent last week and one-year adjustable rate mortgages carried an average rate of 4.57 percent, up slightly from 4.54 percent.

“Interest rates for 30-year fixed mortgages have averaged just below 5 percent this year, which is the lowest 10-month average since the survey began in 1971,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “As a result, refinance activity has accounted for almost seven out of ten mortgage applications on average this year.”

So why didn’t rates move much this week? According to a survey from BankRate.com, the incoming economic data sent mixed signals to the mortgage markets, as investors quickly bought up securities at a government debt auction early in the week, then consumer confidence and new home sales were down.  But then again, existing home sales showed strong gains, jumping up 9.4 percent in September from the previous month.

And although it is anyone’s guess what will happen to interest rates in the coming week and month, by historical standards there is no doubt that rates are fabulously low. If you are a potential homebuyer sitting on the fence, pre-boom home prices coupled with today’s rates make now a really good time to buy.

The Federal Housing Administration is set to implement a new set of rules November 2,  pertaining to mortgages made for condo-buyers. The new guidelines are aimed at protecting the FHA from mortgage fraud as well as minimize its risk of loss on condo foreclosures, but they will probably have the undesirable effect of preventing many buyers from entering the housing market.

Here’s what the FHA plans to change:

“Spot Approvals”  -  it used to be that the FHA would approve individual condo units for mortgages, without having to approve the entire condominium building/project. Now the whole thing will have to check out before someone can get an FHA-approved loan. The FHA said in a statement that the “processes have been streamlined, eliminating the need to approve units on a ’spot loan’ basis,” but lenders say that this could seriously reduce the available condo choices for buyers.

Maximums on FHA-Loan Holders in a Condo Project - In the past there was no limit, but now the FHA plans to only allow a maximum of 30 percent of condo owners to have the government-backed loans. This means that some buyers, especially those with lower credit scores and smaller down payments, may be kept out of certain condo projects because there are already too many of such homeowners in the building. Again, this will limit available condo options.

Requirements for Sold Units - Although there have been no limitations, the FHA will now require that half of the units in a condo project be sold before it will insure any loans for that building. While this protects the FHA against loss, it creates a catch-22. FHA buyers cannot buy until 50 percent of the project is sold, but it will be hard in many cases for condo builders to sell 50 percent of the units without FHA loan-backing for that first half. This requirement is still more lenient than that of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, which require that 70 percent of the project must be sold before they will make loans to new buyers.

Owner-Occupancy Rules - Now only 50 percent of a condo projects’ units must be owner-occupied, instead of the former 51 percent rule. This change doesn’t promise to make a huge difference in the condo market.

Overall, if these new rules go into effect on schedule, they will probably slow the housing market recovery by many months.

Today, the Obama administration announced two new programs to help a small segment of the U.S. housing industry get back on its feet, all with the promise that the taxpayer will not have to foot the bill.

HFAs Getting Help:
State and local housing finance agencies, also known as HFAs. They originate home loans for first-time homebuyers and lower-income buyers. They also provide refinance loans for rental properties. According to National Council of State Housing Agencies President Susan Dewey, the HFAs create between 100,000 and 200,000 new mortgages every year (this represents about 1 percent of the total mortgage market). They are also known for making very safe long-term loans with very low default rates. “Performance of HFA loans has materially outperformed most other loan types, especially when controlling for borrower profile,” according to a Treasury Department fact sheet. They create tax-exempt bonds based on their mortgage securities to pay for their operations.

Why HFAs Need Help:
Dewey says the HFAs have only issued $4 billion in bonds this year. In 2008 they issued $10 billion and in 2007 the total was $16 billion.

“With the market upheaval, we’ve been unable to sell new mortgage bonds for a year,” Bob Kucab, the executive director of the North Carolina Housing Finance Agency, said in a statement accompanying the release. “Despite all the ingenuity we can muster, we’re now helping only about a quarter as many first-time buyers as normal.”

The Obama/Treasury Plan:
1. The Treasury Department will buy HFA-backed securities issued by government controlled finance giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
2. Freddie and Fannie will provide the HFAs with a credit program to refinance the debt from their existing bonds at better rates and terms.

The hope is that these measures will provide the HFAs will the money needed to fund more new mortgages.

The Cost:
The HFAs will pay fees to participate in the new programs, which will supposedly cover the costs, but some reports have said that the initiative could cost taxpayers as much as $35 billion.

Treasury Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions Michael Barr said there are some risks involved, but he didn’t expect taxpayers to take any losses for these programs.

“The expected cost to the government is zero,” Barr said of both programs. It seems unlikely, but perhaps…

International credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings improved its outlook on the U.S. housing market in its recent “Chalk Line” report, but that’s not saying much considering it still expects housing starts and new home sales to continue to plunge downward through the end of the year.

“During the first 12-15 months off the bottom, the housing recovery may appear jaw-toothed as substantial foreclosures now in the pipeline surface as distressed sales, while meaningful new foreclosures arise from Alt-A and option adjustable-rate mortgage resets,” wrote managing director and lead U.S. homebuilding analyst Bob Curran.

The new forecast includes a 36.7 percent decrease in total housing starts in 2009, up from a previous prediction of 43.3 percent. The new projection calls for a 21 percent decline in new home sales, up from the earlier forecast of 30 percent. And existing home sales are now expected to move up 1.1 percent this year to almost 5 million, a change from Fitch’s last prediction of flat sales.

Why the more “upbeat” outlook? Fitch says it took into consideration increased affordability, a slowing of builder cancellation rates, shrunken builder inventories, an uptick in consumer confidence and an increased demand for new homes from those who have been sitting on the sidelines.

Why are the numbers still trending downward though? According to Fitch there is still a great risk of a new wave of foreclosures on the way, home prices continue to decline, and the first-time homebuyers tax credit that has artificially inflated sales for the past two quarters is due to expire in December.

“There is also a negative psychology that remains relatively pervasive. For many, the expectation or fear is that home prices are vulnerable to further declines and buying now might be a mistake,” Curran wrote. “This psychology applies to all types of buyers but especially applies to trade-up and second-home buyers.”

So, we may be in for many more ups and downs across the market for at least the foreseeable future!

Rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages dropped below 5 percent last week and continued to fall this week, creating a dramatic stir in refinancing.

According to mortgage finance company Freddie Mac, the average rate on a 30-year FRM sank to 4.87 percent, excluding points, during the week ending Thursday, down from 4.94 percent. The 15-year FRM rate also dropped, falling to 4.33 percent from 4.36 percent, and the one-year adjustable rate mortgage averaged 4.53 percent, up from 4.49 percent.

There seems to be something special about long-term rates under 5 percent, as refinance activity has surged up 38 percent during the three weeks ending October 2 when rates were below that threshold. The same thing happened in May when rates were under 5 percent for several weeks. Some estimate that refinance requests rose by as much as 30 percent at that time.

It must be something about hearing that rates are near “record lows” that stirs homeowners to take the initiative to refinance into better loan terms and lower monthly payments.

“The wave of homeowners taking advantage of low rates by refinancing is a smart move on the individual level, and it’s possible these refinances could help the housing market in the long term,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow.com, based in Seattle, Washington as quoted in a Reuters article. “If homeowners are getting out of risky mortgage products and into more traditional products, that could help stem future foreclosures marginally.”

The rates are still only helpful for those who qualify for refinances, and approximately one in four homeowners today are underwater in their mortgages, often keeping them from taking advantage of the falling rates.

Home purchases do not seem to be as affected by the drop in rates, as they only rose 13.2 percent in the latest week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is saying that the U.S. unemployment rate is going to break the 10 percent mark before long and hover there for awhile before the trend reverses.

Speaking with George Stephanopoulos Sunday on ABC’s “This Week,” Greenspan said

“…At some point, we’re going to start to see an improvement in employment, but remember that unless there is a monthly increase of more than 100,000 a month, you’ve still got the unemployment rate continuing to rise.”

“My own suspicion is that we’re going to penetrate the 10 percent barrier and stay there for a while before we start down,” he said.

His predictions are not all that shocking considering the Labor Department announced on Friday that the current unemployment rate has reached 9.8 percent.

Yet even as jobs continue to be slashed, the housing market seems to be doing just fine. Of course, the government tax credit for first-time home buyers might have a thing or two to do with that.

The National Association of Realtors announced last week that its pending home sales index rose 6.4 percent in August for the seventh straight month. Pending home sales are a loose predictor of actual home sales as they track signed contracts. And while actual sales have been on the rise, they have not matched the pending home sales pace as a certain percentage of buyers back out and as plenty of short sales are rejected by banks before closing.

And the tax credit set to expire December 1 has been a big contributor to the upswing in real sales over the past few months. One survey found that 43 percent of buyers in August were first-timers.

“No doubt many first-time buyers are rushing to beat the deadline for the $8,000 tax credit, which expires at the end of next month,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. “Sales will decline when the tax credit expires because we are not yet on a self-sustaining recovery path. It also raises a risk of a double-dip recession. Extending and expanding the tax credit is the best tool in our arsenal to encourage financially qualified buyers to stimulate the economy and help reduce the budget deficit.”

If the tax credit is extended, things could continue to look strong in the housing market as long-term mortgage interest rates fell below 5 percent again last week. I guess the question is whether the housing market can find a sustainable level of growth before unemployment figures level off.

For the first time since May, interest rates on long-term mortgage loans dropped below 5 percent this week, reaching near-record lows, according to mortgage financier Freddie Mac. The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) plunged to 4.94 percent, excluding points, for the week ending Thursday, from 5.04 percent last week. Rates have not been that low since the week ended May 28 when it was 4.91 percent. Last year at this time, the average rate was much higher at 6.10 percent.

Other rates also fell significantly with the average on a 15-year FRM dropping to 4.36 percent from 4.46 percent, and the average on a one-year adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) dipping to 4.49 percent from 4.52 percent.

Freddie Mac says this is great for the housing market.

“Low mortgage rates are helping to stabilize home sales,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “New home sales in August rose to the highest annualized pace since September 2008 and the inventory of unsold houses fell to the lowest level since February 1983. Although existing home sales fell somewhat in August, it was still the second strongest showing in 23 months.”

Apparently the low rates from the past week were not enough to entice borrowers to the mortgage table, though. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday that refinance applications were down by 0.8 percent for the week and home purchase applications were down 6.2 percent.

Even though rates are phenomenally low, the problem may continue to be that many potential borrowers just don’t have the credit to qualify these days. Those who really need to refinance are often behind in their payments or even underwater in their loans and are unable to take advantage of the rates. Others, like many potential first-time home buyers, may not have the down payment money or credit scores to get into a low rate home loan right now. Still, rock bottom rates are probably the best thing for the market until unemployment and foreclosure numbers start to stabilize.

It seems there can be no complete recovery of the housing market until the job market stabilizes. New data from Equifax, reported by Reuters news today, showed that the rate of mortgage delinquencies is climbing, and climbing fast.

According to the source, 7.58 percent of all U.S. mortgages were delinquent by 30 days or more in August, an increase from July’s 7.32 percent. This is the fourth straight month of rising delinquencies, and the current rate is up dramatically from a year earlier when it was 4.89 percent. Two years ago, in August 2007, the rate was only 3.44 percent.

Here’s a graph from the Mortgages Unzipped blog that shows the delinquency trend over the past few years. It is definitely on the quick rise.

Apparently there is a very high correlation between these recent figures and the rate of consumer bankruptcy filings. Bankruptcy filings rose by 32 percent in the past year according to Reuters.

Rising unemployment numbers are certainly to blame for both of these issues. And we haven’t seen the end of job losses so far. While unemployment rates have not been increasing as fast in the latest months, more jobs are still being cut than are being created. And as people continue to lose jobs, they will continue to be unable to meet their financial obligations.

What does this mean for the rest of the mortgage market? Home prices are likely to stay down across many regional markets until the delinquency rates (and consequently the foreclosure rates) calm down. But the good news is that mortgage interest rates remain near historic lows, so buying and refinancing are still very attractive for those who can qualify.