Which direction can we expect long-term mortgage interest rates to move this week, the week of July 13? It’s almost impossible to predict, but here are the important reports coming out that will be the major determiners of any shift in rates:

Tuesday

• June Retail Sales – released by the Commerce Department, retail sales are expected to rise by less than one percent this week. Anything stronger than that may mean higher interest rates.
• June Producer Price Index – released by the Labor Department, this figure is predicted to make a very minimal increase, which would hold rates steady this week.
• Quarterly Earnings Report – released by Goldman Sachs, this is the first of several major companies’ reports on their earnings for the second quarter of this year. If the report shows the company to be healthy and thriving, mortgage rates may increase. Otherwise they may stay relatively the same. This goes for the rest of the company reports due this week. Thomson Reuters  is  predicting that S&P 500 companies are likely to see earnings fall by an average of 36 percent, a circumstance that would certainly keep rates from rising.

Wednesday

• June Consumer Price Index – released by the Labor Department, the prices for June likely increased by less than half a percentage point, meaning rates would be probably remain unchanged.
• Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes– released by the Federal Reserve, these are the reasons behind the latest Fed rate decision and help give an idea of how the economy is doing according to the Fed. The Fed often tries to cloak its true outlook on the markets to avoid causing big swings in home loan rates and other financial determinants.

Thursday

• Weekly Jobless Claims – released by the Labor Department, this week’s total jobless claims are expected to rise by 10,000, but that is not large enough to cause a stir in interest rates.
• JPMorgan chase Quarterly Earnings Report

Friday

• Bank of America Quarterly Earnings Report
• Citigroup Quarterly Earnings Report

Very few major improvements in the overall economy are expected this week, but you never know what surprises the markets may have up their sleeves.