Housing Market May Bottom Out This Year
Home prices will continue to sink another 11 percent in the coming months, resulting in a 36 percent overall decrease in home values, according to report released Monday from Moody’s Economy.com, but the silver lining is that they will bottom out by the end of the year.
“Notwithstanding the intensifying economic gloom, the bottom of the housing downturn is within sight,” chief economist Mark Zandi said in a statement today. “Presuming we see strong action by policymakers to help support the economy and the housing market, prices will begin to recover by the end of this year.”
To date, the 381 metropolitan areas included in the Case-Shiller home price index have experienced a 25 percent decrease on average in home values. Before the end of 2009, Moody’s predicts that 62 percent of those areas will see double-digit declines before the correction is through.
The house prices in Southeast Florida is likely to be hit hardest during the coming year with values in Naples, Florida forecasted to fall 70.1 percent from 2005 to the last quarter of 2010. Moody’s predicts that the next biggest losses with be in Merced, California where prices will probably drop 69.6 percent.
Moody’s predictions are all based on assumptions that the U.S. government will aggressively legislate ways to stimulate the economy. “Policymakers have not yet been able to break the downward spiral that has developed among the sinking housing market, job losses, frozen credit markets, and rising foreclosures,” Zandi said.
Yet, even if the newest bailout package comes together and consumers profit from an expansion of the first-time home buyer tax credit, Moody’s warns that the housing market recovery after 2009 will not not bring growth back to its pre-downturn rate until the end of 2010.
Amber Nelson on February 9th 2009 in Home Buying, Mortgage Credit, Mortgage News, Real Estate

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