Mortgage Delinquencies Rise for Seventh Straight Quarter
The rate of mortgage loan delinquency in the U.S. increased to 3.96 percent in third quarter of 2008, the seventh consecutive quarterly rise and a 12 percent increase from the second quarter of this year, according to a survey from credit research company TransUnion.
“As expected, the mortgage sector continued to experience increases in the delinquency rate due to worsening economic conditions in both the labor and financial markets,” said Keith Carson, a senior consultant in TransUnion’s financial services group in a release Monday.
According to the TransUnion survey, a mortgage is delinquent if a borrower is 60 days late or more on the payments. Delinquencies are a traditional predictor of mortgage foreclosures and with the current rate up 54 percent from the same quarter last year, more heartache in the housing market is likely to follow.
Florida led the nation in the highest rate of delinquency at 7.82 percent. Nevada was a close second with a rate of 7.71 percent. The state was with the lowest delinquency pace was North Dakota at 1.35 percent. South Dakota and Montana also had relatively few late mortgages with rates of 1.6 percent and 1.71 percent, respectively.
While West Virginia was the only state to experience a decline in its delinquency rate during the third quarter (the rate fell by 0.39 percent), the District of Colombia saw the greatest increase with a 42.7 percent jump from the previous quarter.
“Our forecasting models predict that the national 60-day mortgage delinquency rate among mortgage borrowers will continue to rise in the fourth quarter of 2008 and throughout 2009, with the 2008 delinquency rates ending at 4.66 percent and 2009 rates possibly reaching 7 percent or greater,” said Carson.
There is some hope on the horizon, however. “Depending on the severity of the capital markets crisis, the ultimate outcome of the decline in the U.S. auto industry and the timing of a recovery in retail sales,” he commented, “we see the possibility of a flattening of mortgage delinquencies as the economy begins to stabilize and some sectors of the country begin to improve in the second quarter of 2010.”
Amber Nelson on December 8th 2008 in Mortgage Credit, Mortgage News
