Mortgage rates are a tricky thing to predict. They respond to changes in economic growth, wages, employment and oil prices among many of other factors. The federal funds rate happens to be a minor part of this calculation.

The Fed generally controls short-term fund rates. These rates establish what banks will charge each other for overnight loans. Long-term rates on the other hand are more closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield and the demand for mortgage-backed securities. Generally mortgage rates are about 2 percentage points higher than the yield on the 10-year Treasury.

Long-term, fixed-rates like mortgages are more influenced by inflation and how fearful the market is of inflation. When the Fed cuts short-term rates their goal is to reduce borrowing costs for corporations so they will invest in the economy and hire people. Unfortunately this kind of economic growth can lead to inflation, which can create higher mortgage rates.

The bottom line is there isn’t really a distinctive connection between the Fed rate cuts and your mortgage rates. Sometimes their rate cuts cause mortgage rates to rise, sometimes to fall and sometimes there is no visible effect whatsoever. The rates will go down when banks are more willing to lend money because they aren’t afraid of inflation and they’ll go up when they are afraid and aren’t willing to offer borrowers mortgage loans.